Chapter 5, Mr. Huang Lao

"Professor Huang, are you still troubled by the Three Gorges Dam issue?" A figure of a middle-aged man emerged from the mist

"Speak, Master, there is no need for formality." Huang Wanli's wise gaze looked at Yan Xin.

Huang Wanli said: "Indeed, the master has a unique insight. You are correct; the Three Gorges is indeed one of the largest geological fault zones in our country. The dam is located near the central part of a massive fault block (Huangling Fault Block) measuring 60 km × 120 km, which is surrounded by active fault zones. The crustal movement between fault blocks is relatively active, and there are active fault zones present, making such boundaries prone to strong earthquakes. Theoretically, the future seismic impact on the Three Gorges dam area mainly comes from the activity of the active fault zones surrounding the fault blocks, which are about 20 kilometers away from the dam area. The bottom of the Three Gorges dam is composed of ancient granite rock masses, which have a good damping effect. " Seeing Yan Xin's expression of wanting to speak but hesitating, he chuckled softly and continued, "Of course, this is in a static sense. If we consider the dynamic load of hundreds of billions of tons of water, two possible scenarios may arise."

In the 1950s, three renowned scholars from Tsinghua University articulated insights in their respective fields that were later proven to be correct. Ma Yinchu (President of Tsinghua University) advocated for population control, Liang Sicheng (Director of the Tsinghua Architecture Department) called for the protection of ancient cities, and Huang Wanli (Professor of Hydraulic Engineering at Tsinghua) opposed the construction of the Sanmenxia Reservoir. In his poem "Nian Huanghe," Huang Wanli wrote: "The court disputes have yielded no results, and upon closing the three gates, the water is clear. Ultimately, foolish words cannot retain water; it is pitiful that blood and sweat are paid to the vastness of the river." The Sanmenxia Reservoir began to store water in September 1960, leading to significant sedimentation above Tongguan on the Wei River that year, inundating 800,000 acres of fertile land. Within 15 months, 1.5 billion tons of silt accumulated at Tongguan. The groundwater level on both banks of the Wei River rose, causing salinization in the historically prosperous Wei River valley. The sedimentation continued to extend upstream, and by 1964, the Xianyang section had accumulated 3 meters of silt, threatening Xi'an. The entire Sanmenxia project incurred estimated losses of no less than 10 billion, and over 290,000 farmers were forced to migrate from the Wei River valley to the water-scarce regions of Ningxia, with 150,000 of them relocating multiple times, resulting in unimaginable tragedies in their lives. Even high-ranking officials sent by the State Council to inspect the situation were moved to tears, stating, "The country truly owes you an apology." Although history has validated Huang Wanli's predictions, the heavy price paid has caused him great sorrow. In 1973, he wrote the lines: "All these matters were visible beforehand; general laws should not be violated. What use is the knowledge I have accumulated in my life? I feel ashamed before the suffering of the people." Now, at nearly 90 years of age, Huang Wanli still sheds tears whenever he recalls this matter.

Thus, after the dam has been completed for 10 years, if your prediction holds true, will we not have to blow up the dam again? A cool breeze blew in, and Yan Xin could not help but shiver.

The previous possibility is that the active fault zone is subjected to continuous compression and fractures occur, resulting in positional displacement between the plates, which leads to the continuous occurrence of earthquakes in the Three Gorges area said Huang Wanli

Yan Xin nodded slightly, and after a moment of thought, said: "To my knowledge, countries around the world are very cautious about the construction of large reservoirs. India, Zambia, and other countries have experienced large reservoirs triggering earthquakes. The Three Gorges of the Yangtze River is the largest geological fault zone in our country, and this largest reservoir in the world happens to be built on it. I wonder what the consequences will be"

Yan Xindao: "In the opinion of the professor, the Three Gorges Dam should never be constructed. The reasons for its impracticality are merely hearsay to me; I wonder if you could elaborate on this matter?"

Yan Xin asked: "What is the impact on the dam?"

Sigh, the empty report, the strategies of the esteemed Ao are known only to a few. The old man slowly turned around and smiled faintly at Yan Xin. Yan Xin quickly stepped forward and grasped the old man's hand

Yan Xin gazed at the elderly man, whose head was full of white hair, exuding a proud spirit and an imposing presence, and a sense of admiration arose within him. After a moment, Yan Xin's expression turned serious, and he earnestly addressed the elder: "Professor Huang, this year the water level of the Three Gorges will reach 175 meters. Given the circumstances, it can be said that everything has come to an end. However, there is still one matter that I do not understand, and I would greatly appreciate your guidance."

"Equivalent to the energy possessed by 30 twenty-thousand-ton nuclear bombs," the professor pondered for a moment and then continued, "However, in comparison, the second scenario is even more severe. The immense water pressure forces the reservoir to backflow along the Three Gorges fault zone into the aquifer, connecting with the underground water layers, seeping into the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, resulting in an average groundwater level increase of over one meter in the Jianghan Plain, leading to soil salinization, and the historically prosperous rice and fish region of Jiangnan will cease to exist..." The immense water pressure forces the reservoir to backflow along the Three Gorges fault zone into the aquifer, connecting with the underground water layers, seeping into the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, resulting in an average groundwater level increase of over one meter in the Jianghan Plain, leading to soil salinization, and the historically prosperous rice and fish region of Jiangnan will cease to exist...

The elder is Mr. Huang Wanli, the most senior water conservancy expert in China and a professor in the Department of Water Resources at Tsinghua University. In his early years, he studied in the United States, obtaining a Master's degree in Hydrology from Cornell University and a Doctor's degree in Water Resources Engineering from the University of Illinois. He is the first Chinese person to obtain a Doctor's degree in Engineering from the United States

The old man spoke, seemingly lost in thought, his face revealing a sense of sorrow. He turned around to face the river, remaining silent and filled with melancholy. After a long while, he faintly heard Yan Xin murmuring behind him: "There are even more terrifying things..."

In the early morning, with mist enveloping the surroundings and a cool breeze gently blowing, an elderly man with a tall stature and a head full of silver hair silently gazes at the vast river. In the distance, the sound of a long whistle from a steamship pierces through the thick fog. After a long while, the old man lets out a deep sigh.

Huang Wanli said: "The Three Gorges Dam is designed to withstand earthquakes of magnitude 7. Earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above occur globally on average about 19 times a year. Do you know how much energy is released by a magnitude 7 earthquake?" Yan Xin shook his head.

"Indeed." The old man's tone was sorrowful

San Dou Ping, Yichang, Hubei. Here stands the largest hydropower project in the world today—the Three Gorges Dam. The dam is a concrete gravity dam, with a length of 3,035 meters at the top, a height of 185 meters, and a total storage capacity of 39.3 billion cubic meters. This is a giant reservoir that stretches 600 kilometers long. It has become a rare artificial landscape in the world, symbolizing the strength of the nation and the pride of the descendants of Yan and Huang, as the media has stated

Huang Wanli nodded and said, "The master is knowledgeable and talented. Although he is not specialized in hydraulic engineering, he has a broad understanding of related fields. Let me put it this way: generally speaking, if a canyon river is not navigable and the banks of its tributaries have little farmland, like the Gongzui section of the Dadu River, it is possible to dam the river and utilize hydropower. Even though the reservoir has become filled with gravel and sand, losing its ability to regulate floods, it can still generate electricity by utilizing the natural drop in water flow. However, the Three Gorges of the Yangtze River are not like this. The key sediment that influences the evolution of the riverbed in the upper reaches of the Yangtze is gravel and chaotic pebbles. After the dam is built, the gravel and pebbles that used to be expelled from the Kuimen every year will not be discharged at all, and it is possible that within ten years, they will accumulate and block the Chongqing port, extending upstream year by year, flooding the Jiangjin river area during the flood season. This is the upper section of the golden waterway, where water resources are abundant and over one hundred million people live, but what is lacking is arable land. Once the reservoir is completed, it will inundate five hundred thousand acres of land, and in the future, even more, to exchange for electricity, which is simply unacceptable. In such a topography, it is absolutely inadvisable to dam the river. In terms of economic benefits, the actual cost per kilowatt of this dam is exceedingly high, and the number of displaced people is enough to break world records. Not only is it unfeasible to build due to its destruction of navigation and agricultural environments, but its intrinsic value is also nonexistent. The Three Gorges Hydropower Station will only incur labor costs for 20 years, with no income from electricity, and the national financial resources cannot bear this burden." After finishing his words, the old man let out a deep sigh.

Which two situations? Yan Xin could not help but feel excited